Supercomputer Opta predicts Real will win the championship with 13 points more than runner-up Barca at the end of La Liga season 2024-2025.
British data firm Opta based its predictions on betting market odds, power rankings, past and recent performance, and then used a supercomputer to simulate matches tens of thousands of times. The results showed that Real have an 86% chance of winning La Liga next season.
According to Opta, the top 4 of La Liga in the 2024-2025 season will include Real with 89 points, Barca 76 points, Atletico 69 points and Girona 65 points. Last season, the actual results were Real with 95 points, Barca 85 points, Girona 81 points and Atletico 76 points.
Mbappe (right) trained with teammates on August 12 in Poland, to prepare for the European Super Cup match. Photo: Real Madrid
According to Marca , the departure of midfielder Toni Kroos, centre-back Nacho and striker Joselu does not affect Real ‘s strength too much . Meanwhile, new recruits Kylian Mbappe and Endrick bring quality to the attack. Therefore, Real is still too strong compared to its opponents. “According to Opta’s calculations, Real will be the team that absolutely dominates La Liga next season,” Marca commented.
Barca , the defending champions’ biggest rivals, have yet to show much promise ahead of the new season. The Camp Nou outfit have just signed Dani Olmo and Pau Victor, two players for a combined $63 million, but they lack the funds to keep the duo on loan from Atletico and Man City last season, Joao Felix and Joao Cancelo. The player Barca fans have been waiting for the most, Nico Williams, has yet to leave Bilbao. According to Spanish media, to raise money to buy Williams and other stars, President Joan Laporta may have to sell Frenkie De Jong and Raphinha to Man Utd.
As of August 14, Atletico is the La Liga team that has spent the most money in the summer transfer market. President Enrique Cerezo agreed to spend nearly 160 million USD to bring in Julian Alvarez, Robin Le Normand and Alexander Sorloth. This amount does not include additional fees that must be paid depending on future achievements. Atletico is also looking to exchange Joao Felix for Conor Gallagher and money from Chelsea.
Girona , who surprisingly jumped from 10th place in the 2022-23 season to third last season, are in need of a squad overhaul. After their loan deals expired, Yan Couto, Savinho, Eric Garcia and Pablo Torre have all returned to their parent clubs. Girona also sold Aleix Garcia to Leverkusen and Artem Dovbyk, La Liga’s top scorer , to Roma. According to Marca , Girona will have to fight Bilbao and Sociedad for fourth place next season.
Today, August 14, Real will compete in the European Super Cup with Atalanta in Warsaw, Poland. Four days later, Mbappe and his teammates will start their La Liga campaign with an away match at Mallorca.
Computer predictions for La Liga points next season:
1. Real Madrid – 89 points
2. Barca – 76
3. Atletico – 69
4. Girona – 65
5. Bilbao – 63
6. Sociedad – 62
7. Villarreal – 59
8. Betis – 54
9. Seville – 49
10. Valencia – 46
11. Celta Vigo – 46
12. Mallorca – 46
13. Alaves – 45
14. Osasuna – 44
15. Getafe – 41
16. Rayo Vallecano – 41
17. Las Palmas – 38
18. Espanyol – 38
19. Valladolid – 38
20. Leganes – 37
