Aston Villa – Man United match statistics
Man United have lost three of their six Premier League games this season, winning just twice – against Southampton and Fulham, while losing their last two home games in the top flight by a combined score of 0-6, against Liverpool and Spurs.
Their tally of seven points is their fewest after six games in any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), a start that is similar to that under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjær in 2020-21.
They now face another of the league’s top sides in Villa, who were fresh from a midweek UEFA Champions League win over Bayern Munich and are unbeaten in their last four domestic league games, winning three and drawing one.
Unai Emery’s side have picked up 13 points from their opening six Premier League games, their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (who also picked up 13 points).
Since taking over at Aston Villa, Emery has guided the team to 74 points at home since November 2022. Only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have earned more points at home in that time.
Jhon Duran is a player that Man United are particularly keen on. The Colombian has scored five goals this season, all coming off the bench, including four in the Premier League. At Villa Park, Duran averages a goal every 43 minutes, the second-best ratio in the league at a given ground, behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (an average of a goal every 38 minutes).
Duran has yet to usurp Ollie Watkins, who has been directly involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances since Emery joined Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Haaland (65 goals and assists) and Mohamed Salah (60) having bettered Watkins’ tally in the same period.
Watkins is looking to score in four consecutive league games for the first time since April 2023, having previously found the net against Everton, Wolves and Ipswich Town in recent weeks.
In contrast to the hosts, Aston Villa have a poor defence. The Red Devils have lost eight Premier League games by three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the only Premier League managers to have suffered more defeats by such a margin are Gary O’Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).
Despite conceding just eight goals, United have an expected goals conceded (xGA) of 11.04 so far in the Premier League, the fifth worst statistic in the division, bettered only by three newly promoted clubs and Brentford.
Head to head record, score prediction
Although the home team is rated higher, it is worth noting that Man United has a very good record against the Villans.
Man United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa. The Villa Park team are Man United’s favourite opponents in this tournament, along with Everton (41 wins).
Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Man United (D8 L16), including Emery’s first win in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).
Last season, Man United also played poorly but defeated Aston Villa in both meetings with scores of 3-2 and 2-1.
Given Villa’s good form and United’s poor start to the 2024-25 season, it’s no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer side with the home side.
They rate Aston Villa as having a 42% chance of winning, while the rate for Man United is only 33.2%. The probability of a draw in this match is 24.8%.
