The San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday afternoon, looking for a spark in a big way as they sit at 5-5 on the season.
The 49ers are coming off a 20-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks where they struggled to capitalize on opportunities offensively and had a late meltdown defensively, dropping a key divisional game.
Now, they face a Green Bay team that has gotten out to a good start on the year, sitting at 7-3, but has played in a number of one-score games thus far.
San Francisco comes into this game down a trio of stars, as quarterback Brock Purdy, defensive end Nick Bosa, and cornerback Charvarius Ward are all out versus the Packers.
What’s the formula to success for the 49ers against Green Bay on Sunday?
Ride Jordan Mason
With Brock Purdy out, the logical solution would be a heavy dosage of Christian McCaffrey in the run game. But, the star back will be facing a number of loaded boxes with Green Bay looking to defend the run, which is why physicality could very well be a big factor on Sunday in colder weather.
The Packers are middle-of-the-pack when it comes to defending the run, allowing just under 120 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry.
So, there is an avenue for success there, but it feels like the 49ers will need to deploy more Jordan Mason in this one after he combined to get just three touches over the past two games.
Mason has been efficient with his touches when on the field, averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season. While the 49ers do obviously get a different element of their offense when Christian McCaffrey is on the field, the passing game should take a hit with Brandon Allen under center, putting more emphasis on the ground game.
We wrote earlier this week about how the Deebo Samuel rushes have become largely ineffective, be it because of the wideout himself or the blocking issues on those plays. Instead, get Mason the ball more, which will help the offense move the chains between the 20s.
Blitz Jordan Love
With the 49ers missing out on Nick Bosa this weekend, they’re going to need to find different ways for the defense to generate pressure. And that means going away from what they’ve been doing this year and blitzing more.
San Francisco is among the bottom when it comes to blitz rate, as they’ve looked to mainly rush four and drop seven, trusting Bosa to get to the quarterbacks and their defensive backs to hold it down in the secondary.
Well, the pass rush has been there at times, but not nearly with the consistency that the 49ers had hoped, and that will definitely change on Sunday.
Jordan Love was one of the better quarterbacks against the blitz a season ago, completing 65 percent of his passes in those situations, while having a 10:1 touchdown-interception ratio.
This year? Love has struggled while under pressure and when facing the blitz, as he’s completed just 55.6 percent of his passes, while throwing four touchdowns to six interceptions on the season. In addition, his turnover-worthy play rate, which is already high this season, skyrockets to 4.8 percent when blitzed.
San Francisco needs to change things up and blitz more on Sunday, especially with Bosa out.
Red Zone
One thing that could keep this game closer than expected is the red zone play from both teams.
San Francisco’s struggles inside their opponent’s 20-yard line have been well-documented. They sit at 26th in the NFL with a 48.78 touchdown percentage in the red zone after leading the league at 68 percent last year.
You know who’s worse than them? The Green Bay Packers, who have converted touchdowns on only 48.72 percent of their red zone drives.
Both teams get to the red zone at a high rate, thanks to some solid offenses, but they haven’t been able to execute well enough, leading to a number of one-score games on both sides.
Defensively, neither team is very good at defending the red zone either. Green Bay allows opponents to score touchdowns on 58.8 percent of their drives (19th in NFL), while San Francisco allows touchdowns on 62.5 percent of their drives (23rd in NFL).
So, something has to give on Sunday. And it very well could determine the winner.